25 Dec: 1831 My dear Sir

My last letter to you was of Friday—I have yet rec'¹ no communications from you. Yours of the 23^d is just brought in & contents noted. This morning was appointed for the conference between the Secy: G' Smith M¹' M^uffie & myself, the Secy: is however ill, in bed— & we must await his convalescence.

I have had much talk with M¹' Webster (who is now at Annapolis) M¹'. Silbee present. He (W.) seems decidedly for starting the memorial if we are sure of a bare majority in the 2 Houses — & even indeed if we are sure of a majority in H. of R. where we of course must begin. He says the Senate will not throw out the Bill, if passed below — & he thinks the Pres. will not reject it — threaten as he may at present. entre nous, it is evident thatWs opinions are guided, in some degree, by party feelings—as seems to be the Case with most of the Clay men. I must therefore measure opinions with fair allowances, M¹' Adams, with whom I have consulted, & with whom I shall again confer takes cooler views — & is more disposed to look at the question under all its aspects;

leans towards postponing unless a strong vote can be ascertained. Having rec'¹ the N. York reports this morning, I believe I may now sum up our supporters in that delegation at 14 — three others are marked doubtful. In Maine, from the best information I can get we shall have I. vote (Evans) — we certainly have all the Mass R. I'¹ Conn': & Vermont — in N. York 14 — all for Jersey — 22 from Penns" besides Horn (who next year w vote for B' with certain restrictions

— as Dallas tells me) & Mann (perhaps) Delaware I. Maryland 7. Virginia (as polled by Mercer & Archer—Archer dead ag' us on constitutional grounds — but polling his Delegation on honour & after conversing with each member— who agree in the result (6. N.Car: as polled by Yr' Kinsman Shephard—(who is for the Bk') 6—certain—S.Car:

2 (M^uffie & Drayton) Georgia I Kentucky 5 — Ten^ I. (certain) besides Bell who will vote with us if he can. Ohio 14. certain—Louisa—certain & Missouri i. certain—giving for the Bank 116 — & leaving against it 97. These pollings I have gone over with M^uffie this morn⁸: & he confirms them— we look therefore, allowing for absences, to 20. majority—w he thinks good ground to go upon—supposing the Bill Safe in Senate—as to that Body— I ran them over in a former Letter

—now again, more knowingly. Maine Mass⁸ R.I. Connecticut & Verm 2 each—N.Ham. I certain (making) = II

N.Jersey (taking off Dickerson if now agitated ag: wishes of Pres'. certain)

Penns (W. & D. both torn with contending calculations —but I have reasons to believe they will consider State interests as paramount to be explained when we meet.

Del = 2 & Md I. (Gen'. Smith told me he must desert if now pushed — maybe not — but let him pass) (certain) 3 wd vote for Bk' thro' thick y thin—N:Car: (Mangum told TVPDuffie he wd & believes his colleague

Brown will go with him — but say certain) — I Georgia Forsyth our friend — but probably not with us now Kentucky I. Ohio & Louis³ 4 — certain 5 Tens" — Grundy in favor — but cannot now go if.

Mississippi — Pointdexter anti Jackson & believed with us I M'Duffie will ascertain however—Missouri (certain) I

now believed certain (if Pointdexter is right) — 25

With us another time — Dickerson — Smith — Forsyth & Grundy — perhaps Brown — say

5 = making 29 or 30 on another occasion. — Under these circumstances M'Duffie leans in favor of going it now — & so do I — but we think it best not to decide till after the Conference with McLane & Smith. We have full confidence in M'L's candour— as to his belief that J. will put on his veto — but the old Gent may shake in his intentions — and, if he return the Bill, he may state objections that perhaps may be yielded to by us. We shd in fact have hopes of him on a future occasion, if he takes any other than the broad ground of the constitution. We might be blamed for losing this Session (the long one — moreover) & tho' we go counter to the administration men — who are interested in postponing, we keep the other party with us — some of whom w'¹ be lukewarm, Webster Wd be cold, or perhaps hostile, if we bend to the Gov influence. I do not yet decide — but incline to suppose that after the council at the Treasury, I shall advise the Corn" to start the memorial. I shall not do so however unless M^Duffie's opinion is decidedly that way, for he is our main stay — & if we make a blunder I have told him that I shall throw it on him.

All agree that when started, the H. of R. must lead — & all say it will not be committed to the Corn" of W. & M. but to a special one — 7. will be the number & of course the Speaker will appoint — 4 for & 3 against — so say M^Duffie & all — no danger of his breaking a custom so fixed. Everything then depends on having the proper man as chairman. M'Duffie promised to move the Commitment of the Memorial — w puts him in that position & thus gives us a fair chance.